Developing a Global Vegetation Dynamics Model: Results of an IIASA Summer Workshop

This report provides the initial substantive description of a global vegetation model which was generated through the interactions of eighteen graduate students, visitors and resident scholars at IIASA during the summer of 1988. Independent but related activities in modifying detailed dynamic models of boreal forest systems are described here as well. This particular summer workshop, in attracting a critical mass of highly qualified scientists to IIASA for several months, has proven to be extremely advantageous in attacking difficult, complex, and interdisciplinary scientific problems

The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: Results from a process-based model

A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE) has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated

Using natural selection and optimization for smarter vegetation models - challenges and opportunities

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are now indispensable for understanding the biosphere and for estimating the capacity of ecosystems to provide services. The models are continuously developed to include an increasing number of processes and to utilize the growing amounts of observed data becoming available. However, while the versatility of the models is increasing as new processes and variables are added, their accuracy suffers from the accumulation of uncertainty, especially in the absence of overarching principles controlling their concerted behaviour. We have initiated a collaborative working group to address this problem based on a ‘missing law’ – adaptation and optimization principles rooted in natural selection. Even though this ‘missing law’ constrains relationships between traits, and therefore can vastly reduce the number of uncertain parameters in ecosystem models, it has rarely been applied to DGVMs. Our recent research have shown that optimization- and trait-based models of gross primary production can be both much simpler and more accurate than current models based on fixed functional types, and that observed plant carbon allocations and distributions of plant functional traits are predictable with eco-evolutionary models. While there are also many other examples of the usefulness of these and other theoretical principles, it is not always straight-forward to make them operational in predictive models. In particular on longer time scales, the representation of functional diversity and the dynamical interactions among individuals and species presents a formidable challenge. Here we will present recent ideas on the use of adaptation and optimization principles in vegetation models, including examples of promising developments, but also limitations of the principles and some key challenges

Response to Comment on “Mycorrhizal association as a primary control of the CO 2 fertilization effect”

Norby et al. center their critique on the design of the data set and the response variable used. We address these criticisms and reinforce the conclusion that plants that associate with ectomycorrhizal fungi exhibit larger biomass and growth responses to elevated CO2 compared with plants that associate with arbuscular mycorrhizae

From biota to chemistry and climate: Towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere

Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climate-chemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation

Competition for light can drive adverse species-composition shifts in the Amazon Forest under elevated CO2

The resilience of biodiverse forests to climate change depends on an interplay of adaptive processes operating at multiple temporal and organizational scales. These include short-term acclimation of physiological processes like photosynthesis and respiration, mid-term changes in forest structure due to competition, and long-term changes in community composition arising from competitive exclusion and genetic trait evolution. To investigate the roles of diversity and adaptation for forest resilience, we present Plant-FATE, a parsimonious eco-evolutionary vegetation model. Tested with data from a hyperdiverse Amazonian terra-firme forest, our model accurately predicts multiple emergent ecosystem properties characterizing forest structure and function. Under elevated CO2 conditions, we predict an increase in productivity, leaf area, and aboveground biomass, with the magnitude of this increase declining in nutrient-deprived soils if trees allocate more carbon to the rhizosphere to overcome nutrient limitation. Furthermore, increased aboveground productivity leads to greater competition for light and drives a shift in community composition towards fast-growing but short-lived species characterized by lower wood densities. Such a transition reduces the carbon residence time of woody biomass, dampening carbon-sink strength and potentially rendering the Amazon Forest more vulnerable to future climatic extreme events

Role of zooplankton dynamics for Southern Ocean phytoplankton biomass and global biogeochemical cycles

Global ocean biogeochemistry models currently employed in climate change projections use highly simplified representations of pelagic food webs. These food webs do not necessarily include critical pathways by which ecosystems interact with ocean biogeochemistry and climate. Here we present a global biogeochemical model which incorporates ecosystem dynamics based on the representation of ten plankton functional types (PFTs); six types of phytoplankton, three types of zooplankton, and heterotrophic bacteria. We improved the representation of zooplankton dynamics in our model through (a) the explicit inclusion of large, slow-growing zooplankton, and (b) the introduction of trophic cascades among the three zooplankton types. We use the model to quantitatively assess the relative roles of iron vs. grazing in determining phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll (HNLC) region during summer. When model simulations do not represent crustacean macrozooplankton grazing, they systematically overestimate Southern Ocean chlorophyll biomass during the summer, even when there was no iron deposition from dust. When model simulations included the developments of the zooplankton component, the simulation of phytoplankton biomass improved and the high chlorophyll summer bias in the Southern Ocean HNLC region largely disappeared. Our model results suggest that the observed low phytoplankton biomass in the Southern Ocean during summer is primarily explained by the dynamics of the Southern Ocean zooplankton community rather than iron limitation. This result has implications for the representation of global biogeochemical cycles in models as zooplankton faecal pellets sink rapidly and partly control the carbon export to the intermediate and deep ocean

Global datasets of leaf photosynthetic capacity for ecological and earth system research

The maximum rate of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax) determines leaf photosynthetic capacity and is a key parameter for estimating the terrestrial carbon cycle, but its spatial information is lacking, hindering global ecological research. Here, we convert leaf chlorophyll content (LCC) retrieved from satellite data to Vcmax, based on plants' optimal distribution of nitrogen between light harvesting and carboxylation pathways. We also derive Vcmax from satellite (GOME-2) observations of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) as a proxy of leaf photosynthesis using a data assimilation technique. These two independent global Vcmax products agree well (mol m−2 s−1, P<0.001) and compare well with 3672 ground-based measurements (mol m−2 s−1 and P<0.001 for SIF; mol m−2 s−1 and P<0.001 for LCC). The LCC-derived Vcmax product is also used to constrain the retrieval of Vcmax from TROPical Ozone Mission (TROPOMI) SIF data to produce an optimized Vcmax product using both SIF and LCC information. The global distributions of these products are compatible with Vcmax computed from an ecological optimality theory using meteorological variables, but importantly reveal additional information on the influence of land cover, irrigation, soil pH, and leaf nitrogen on leaf photosynthetic capacity. These satellite-based approaches and spatial Vcmax products are primed to play a major role in global ecosystem research. The three remote sensing Vcmax products based on SIF, LCC, and SIF+LCC are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6466968 (Chen et al., 2022), and the code for implementing the ecological optimality theory is available at https://github.com/SmithEcophysLab/optimal_vcmax_R and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5899564 (last access: 31 August 2022) (Smith et al., 2022)

Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso